Tesla FSD inflection

The bet is that FSD learning has gone exponential and Tesla is entering the ‘golden age of robotics.’

• We believe that FSD learning has indeed gone exponential.

• If FSD continues to scale at a similar rate as today, it will enable Robotaxis.

• Robotaxis are the dream and will be incredibly disruptive.

There is really only one bet in owning tesla at $400: Robotaxis are successful

• If Robotaxi it is not successful, $400+ is very hard to justify.

• Regulations had been a key blocking factor. Political angle has changed this.

Tesla is at a potential inflection point in its business, thus we think it is imperative to have an opinion on FSD and Tesla right now. We say this because TSLA is the least liked, most under-owned >$1tn market cap stock. We encounter very few believers, plus it had been one of the megacap stocks that could be ignored until late 2024, when TSLA doubled. 

Risk / Reward:

• Robotaxi + Robots Upside: $1000 (+100%) how big can you dream?

• FSD and 6m units production: $350 (-12%) (Supervised FSD success, but no robotaxi)

• TSLA is a car company: $200-$260 (-45%)

Link to research