GLBE is an under-appreciated, leader in the high growth cross-border and D2C eCommerce market.
The cross-border subset of e-commerce is an operationally difficult channel, as selling into foreign markets requires expertise in local market conventions including complying with regulations, different tax regimes, delivery etc.
GLBE’s outsourced solutions make the process simple, removing compliance risk for the merchant and improving the economics vs. in-house solutions and fixed cost investment.
The sustainability of 25-30% revenue growth attracts us to GLBE, along with the clear value added to customers despite macro challenges.
We think the Shopify deal has the potential for meaningful upside surprise over next two years.
Farfetch, GLBE’s closest competitor, has exited the business giving a strong tailwind to H2 2024 and 2025 new merchant bookings that underpin 30%+ GMV growth in 2025.
Potential Upside: $100 (+80%) – 20% IRR over 3 years
Sensible Downside: $50 (-10%) – Estimate a 5% IRR in our downside scenario
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